Australian Banks 2026-27 Budget shakes up Investor lending tax policies; sentiment overhang and headwind to credit growth

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks 2026-27 Budget shakes up Investor lending tax policies; sentiment overhang and headwind to credit growth

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

12 May 2026

Australian Banks

2026-27 Budget shakes up Investor lending tax policies;

sentiment overhang and headwind to credit growth

The Australian Government announced in the Federal Budget a number of changes Australia

to the taxation of property investors. Property investors account for one-third of

system mortgage credit, but investor lending has recently seen stronger growth

rates than owner occupier lending. The two main changes are: 1) A limit on Andrew Triggs AC

negative gearing to newly built dwellings going forward (but grandfathering of (61-2) 9003-8919

andrew.triggs@jpmorgan.com

existing negatively geared properties); and 2) A return to indexation of Capital

Kelsey Bentley

Gains Tax (CGT), replacing the 50% CGT discount method. The announced (61-2) 9003 7482

changes stem from a concern that existing tax policies have driven too much kelsey.bentley@jpmorgan.com

investment in an unproductive asset class; since the establishment of the 50% CGT J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

discount in 1999, house prices have risen by ~400%, twice the rate of income

growth. While Treasury does not expect an immediate fall in house prices, it does

model a slower path of house price growth in future. We presume that housing

credit growth will be lower than otherwise expected (as would housing turnover),

with mortgage-heavy major banks (CBA, WBC) likely to be more impacted at face

value. This is likely to compound challenges from RBA rate hikes.

• What did the Government announce? The Government has announced two

key changes to the tax system in its 2026-2027 budget which relate to CGT and