Ryanair Checking-In for Q4 earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Ryanair Checking-In for Q4 earnings

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

12 May 2026

Ryanair Overweight

RYA.I, RYA ID

Checking-In for Q4 earnings Price (11 May 26):€23.34

▼Price Target (Dec-27):€35.00

Prior (Dec-27):€36.00

We provide a preview ahead of Q4 earnings (Monday 18 May). We forecast a Q4

net income loss at -€420m with fares +5%, which are both unchanged. We therefore European Transport & Logistics

sit towards the top end of Ryanair’s full-year Mar-26E net income guidance for Harry J Gowers AC

€2.13bn-2.23bn (JPMe €2.23bn). However, we expect the investor focus to be (44-20) 7134-7522

firmly on the summer pricing outlook and the impact on passenger demand from harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the Middle East conflict, and any new guidance points for Mar-27E earnings. After

Alexia Doganioutperforming at the start of the conflict, the shares have underperformed recently

(44-20) 3493-3791

due to a softer outlook from European short-haul peers and weaker peak summer alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

pricing comments from CEO Michael O’Leary, although this has also “de-risked” J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the results somewhat in our view. IAG on their Q1 conference call last week also Shikha Khurana

said that UK and Italy routes were challenging, which are two of Ryanair’s biggest (91-22) 6157-5022

markets. We therefore take our Q2 peak summer fares down and now forecast -1% shikha.khurana@jpmchase.com

(previously +3%), although offset by slightly better Q1. Despite slightly lower J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

pricing forecasts, in our view Ryanair’s more diversified network, lower adjacent Bhavpreet S Batra

country exposure to the ME, and potential for some “trading down” to the lowest (91-22) 6157-5046

bhavpreet.batra@jpmorgan.com