Essity Model update post Q126 and CMD: Limited changes with building cost inflation risk to H2

Research evidence excerpt

Essity Model update post Q126 and CMD: Limited changes with building cost inflation risk to H2

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

12 May 2026

Essity Underweight

ESSITYB.ST, ESSITYB SS

Model update post Q126 and CMD: Limited changes Price (11 May 26):Skr244.00

with building cost inflation risk to H2 Price Target (Dec-27):Skr215.00

Following Essity’s Q126 results and CMD we update our model. We make broadly European Food Producers,

limited changes to EPS 26E, and continue to expect absolute adj. EBITA for the Household & Personal Care

year at SEK 18.4bn, despite the Q1 slight beat. We expect organic sales for the year Products, Beverages & Tobacco

at +2.2% (unchanged from prior) with volumes +0.6% and pricing +1.6%. After Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

a deflationary Q1, we expect inputs inflation to turn positive in Q2 and build in H2 (44-20) 7134-7123

- we model overall 4% COGS inflation for the year. This will necessitate a quick celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

return to positive pricing, which the company referenced at its CMD, especially for Edward G Hockin

Consumer Tissue. We therefore continue to see downside to earnings, with JPMe (44-20) 7742-6937

edward.hockin@jpmorgan.com

-3% below consensus adj. EBITA 26E. Whilst the CMD illuminated efforts to step

Prem Sirisuttinunt

up execution across categories and a strategic review of Consumer Tissue, we view

(44-20) 3493-4568

the outcome as an overhang given the risks to value creation from a separation on sakdipong.sirisuttinunt@jpmorgan.com

stranded costs and demanding assumptions to re-rate the core. On our updated J.P. Morgan Securities plc

estimates, Essity trades at 12.5x PE 27E and 7.4x EV/EBITDA 27E. We maintain

our Underweight rating on the stock. Specialist Sales contact details:

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -