GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Brookfield Corporation Model Update
Research evidence excerpt
Brookfield Corporation Model Update
leverage as compared with
the existing BWS business. We await further details to come with earnings and beyond
prior to updating our current modeling, which already reflected our best understanding
of the transaction. At present, we model Wealth Solutions DE of $1,821mm in C2026 and
$2,355mm in C2027, as compared with $1,671mm actuals in C2025. The YoY growth
becomes more meaningful in C2027 (29%, vs. 9% in C2026), as contributions from Just
are included for a full year.
• Other non-AM model changes and considerations. We see upside to carry as funds
mature and Brookfield works through required thresholds. While Brookfield was
actively returning capital to LPs (as highlighted by the record realizations year in 2025
noted above), Brookfield was still largely working through required performance and
expense thresholds for a number of younger funds during this period. We understand that
several of these funds have now worked through their required thresholds. We increase
our carry expectations for 1Q26 due to expected Oaktree tax-related distributions (from
$128mm in our prior model to $141mm in our updated model). We otherwise keep near-
term carry projections constant (as relating to the Brookfield side of the house) given lack
of visibility in announced significant events and potential air pockets of volatility related
to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. From the 1Q26 BAM release, we know that
realizations were softer in the quarter at $7.8bn (vs. prior four-quarter average of
$12.7bn) – we appreciate that 1Q26 adverse broader market moves could have
temporarily impacted realizations. We increase our net carry projections in 3Q26 and
beyond, however, as macro conditions have generally stabilized. Our net carry estimates
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