Petrobras 1Q26 Results: Timing Distortions Drive EBITDA Miss; Buy on Weakness

Research evidence excerpt

Petrobras 1Q26 Results: Timing Distortions Drive EBITDA Miss; Buy on Weakness

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

11 May 2026

Petrobras

1Q26 Results: Timing Distortions Drive EBITDA Miss;

Buy on Weakness

Our take: Results were weaker than expected versus JPMe and consensus, LatAm Basic Materials

ACexpect a negative reaction. Petrobras reported adjusted EBITDA of $11.7B, ~9% Rodolfo Angele, CFA

below both JPMe and consensus. The quarter was hard to interpret because timing (55-11) 4950-3888

effects obscured underlying trends. The main driver for the miss was an export rodolfo.r.angele@jpmorgan.com

price/recognition lag: many export cargoes (particularly to Asia) are priced using Milene Clifford Carvalho

prior-month benchmarks, while revenue is recognized upon title transfer at (55-11) 4950-3475

destination, delaying the benefit of the late-quarter oil price uplift into 2Q26. This milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

dynamic will also work in reverse if and when oil prices fall. Upstream EBITDA Henrique Cunha, CFA

of $10.3B was ~16.7% below JPMe. In Refining, inventory timing was favorable: (55 11) 4950 3623

henrique.r.cunha@jpmorgan.com

refineries processed crude purchased before the oil price spike, temporarily Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

supporting margins above expectations. Refining EBITDA reached $2.5B, ~2.5x

our $1.0B forecast. This should also reverse as higher-cost crude flows through.

FCF was positive but shy at $1.3B (c.3.7% annualized yield). The weaker quarter PBR, PBR US

also translated into minimum dividends ~25% below JPMe and consensus at

Overweight$1.8B. While the prints are soft, we believe the core thesis remains intact: (a) timing

Price (11 May 26): $20.75

effects should unwind; (b) higher oil prices should be more fully reflected in