Becle, S.A.B. de C.V. U.S. Reset Extends - Destocking + Distribution Re-Org Keep Share and Margin Risks High

Research evidence excerpt

Becle, S.A.B. de C.V. U.S. Reset Extends - Destocking + Distribution Re-Org Keep Share and Margin Risks High

Froylan Mendez AC Latin America Equity Research

(52-55) 5540-9482 11 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Becle has a broad spirits portfolio that spans a number of

categories and is the absolute market leader in the tequila

category both in the United States and globally. However, the

spirits industry is facing a longer than expected demand

normalization period, especially in the US, and a heightened

competitive environment, including in Cuervo’s core

categories. In this scenario, margin tailwinds for Cuervo coming

from lower input costs and a weaker MXN could be largely

offset as the industry competes to maintain share through

YTD 1m 3m 12m pricing. Furthermore, visibility on the length and depth of

Abs -34.1% -17.3% -28.1% -46.4% diminished pricing power is very low at this point, leading us to

Rel -43.3% -17.6% -26.2% -70.1%

adopt a more conservative view on LT gross margins for the

Company Data company, which we now expect to stabilize below pre-pandemic

Shares O/S (mn) 3,591 levels.

52-week range (Ps) 25.68-13.55

Market cap ($ mn) 2,851.68 Valuation

Exchange rate 17.18 We rate Becle/Cuervo shares Neutral. We have a Dec 2026 target

Free float (%) 13.3%

3M ADV (mn) 3.68 price of Ps16/share. Our price target is based on a 10yr DCF,

3M ADV ($ mn) 3.4 which embeds a 12.0% Ke and a 4.0% LT growth rate.

Volatility (90 Day) 34

Index MEXBOL

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 5|6|2 Performance Drivers

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

Ps in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 43,089 38,397 40,531

Adj. EBITDA 10,303 7,439 8,251

Adj. EBIT 8,954 6,052 6,842

Adj.