European Luxury Goods & Specialty Retail: Beyond the boom

Research evidence excerpt

European Luxury Goods & Specialty Retail: Beyond the boom

Barclays | European Luxury Goods & Specialty Retail

product newness from recent creative director changes translating into market impact and re-

igniting consumer interest, or 3/ signs of confidence in company-specific turnarounds where

applicable.

We expect '27-'29 global luxury sector CAGR to normalise at 4%, from c.5% over the past

25 years, this translates in c5% CAGR for our coverage universe. We view this assumption as

optimistic. By consumer nationality, we expect the Americans to outperform at 5%, the Chinese

to underperform at c.3%, decelerating from c.7% over the past 15 years. Japanese and

Europeans should also grow at a c.3% CAGR, reflecting their mature market status, while higher

growth (c.5%) should come from the new consumers in the Rest of APAC (c.5%, similar size as

China) and Other Markets (c.6%), dominated by the Middle East. By category, we expect

Jewellery at 7% to continue to outperform, Leather Goods, Ready-to-Wear and Beauty to grow

broadly in-line with the sector at 4%, and Watches and Other to underperform at 2.5%. This

outlook assumes no deterioration in macro conditions, no escalation of geopolitical conflicts,

and no major shocks to global wealth creation – risks that remain very much present.

Longer term, we expect 2.5% growth for the sector as we question the durability of four out

of the five key pillars that have historically underpinned luxury growth – social stratification,

peacetime prosperity, globalisation and emancipation – as well as the sector’s ability to

continue scaling beyond our 2029 market size estimate of €416bn, based on Bain estimates for

2025 and our forecasts for market growth through 2029, while preserving exclusivity.