Hermes: Heritage forecasts, new reality

Research evidence excerpt

Hermes: Heritage forecasts, new reality

: Bloomberg

saturated, increasingly well-informed consumer base, and intensifying competition for

VICs (very important clients) spending in China. Together, these dynamics are likely to cap Price Performance Exchange-PA

organic growth and force higher investment in the region, skewing the risk to medium-term EUR 52 Week range 2606.00-1529.00estimates to the downside.

Key point #2: The immediate: MENA disruption, China momentum and RTW volatility likely

to put pressure on estimates, we expect 7% cFX growth in 2Q: With 1Q growth of just 5.6%

cFX – the weakest print since COVID – investors are increasingly looking for a clear inflection

point in organic growth. In our view, that inflection is not yet visible, making consensus 2026

expectations vulnerable. Our granular assessment of the MENA disruption points to c.€45-50m

of lost sales in 2Q (vs. c.€60-65m in 1Q), continuing to weigh on Europe and the “Other” regions. Source: IDC

While we expect APAC growth to recover gradually from 2.2% in 1Q to 4-6% over the coming Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

quarters, FY volumes are still set to remain negative in the region, with APAC growth of just 4.2%

cFX in 2026. RTW should show a mechanical improvement from an unusually muted 1Q, but European Luxury Goods & Specialty

visibility remains low and momentum unconvincing. As a result, even our 7.5% cFX FY26e Retail

growth assumption (vs. consensus at 8.3%) looks optimistic, despite embedding robust growth Viktoria Petrova

of c.9-10% in Europe and Japan, and 15% in the Americas. +49 (0)69 7161 1052

viktoria.petrova@barclays.com

BBI, Frankfurt

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies Filippo Croce