Post Holdings, Inc.: Still a High Bar on Strategic Action vs. Share Repo

Research evidence excerpt

Post Holdings, Inc.: Still a High Bar on Strategic Action vs. Share Repo

Barclays | Post Holdings, Inc.

POST’s EV/EBITDA multiple is below 8x – still likely below what some management teams/

financial players might be looking for as an exit value. So, in the meantime, we’d expect the

company to continue to repurchase its own shares until the right opportunity comes along.

We had been of the mind that there was still some conservatism built into what the

company saw as its normalized EBITDA run rate in Foodservice, so we are not all that

surprised that this segment again over-delivered. POST still sees a normalized EBITDA run

rate of ~$500mm in FY26 vs ~$460mm in FY25 previously, a nearly +9% increase (vs. long term

algorithm growth for the segment of +5% YOY). By our count, POST has raised six times in just

the past few years what it sees as a normalized EBITDA run rate for this business – increasing

the quarterly rate from $70mm pre pandemic and $85-$90mm in F1Q23 to $125mm. The mix

shift of this business towards higher value-added egg products continues to drive profitability

(with volume nearly +7% YOY this quarter) even in the context of still weak restaurant traffic

trends. Improved manufacturing and supply chain performance are also supporting the EBITDA

performance. Moving forward, POST now sees the $125mm quarterly run rate as more

appropriate having more fully moved past the lingering effects of HPAI.

POST is seeing some early encouraging signs on RTE cereal and pet food. While upside in

F2Q26 again came from Foodservice, within the PCB segment where more recent top line trends

have been challenging (much like dynamics seen across the broader packaged food landscape),

POST saw cereal category volumes decline -3.0% YOY in F2Q26 (and was down -2.5% YOY in