TAG Immobilien (AO) | Buy | Sound operational trends have continued

Research evidence excerpt

TAG Immobilien (AO) | Buy | Sound operational trends have continued

TAG Immobilien Buy | Target Price: EUR21.60

Company description Management

TAG Immobilien is a leading holder of German real estate with a particular focus Claudia Hoyer, COO, Co-CEO

on residential properties in growing Eastern German cities. In addition, the Martin Thiel, CFO, Co-CEO

company is one of the largest developers of residential real estate in Poland with

a strong focus on the five largest cities. Residential developments in Poland are Key shareholders

not only sold, but TAG also keeps apartments in its portfolio for renting them out Free float 97.00%

to tenants. TAG has become one of the largest residential for rent players in Black Rock 6.00% BNP Paribas 4.90%

Poland.

Investment case Valuation methodology

TAG owns a high-yielding residential portfolio focused on We value the stock using the blended outcome of a DCF model,

growing urban locations in Eastern Germany with significant a discounted dividend model, and a discounted NTA model.

long-term rental growth potential and an attractive portfolio of Key assumptions for the DCF model are: LT EBITDA margin of

standing and development assets in key Polish cities. 83%, medium-term growth of 3% in Germany until 2030E, LT

Its Polish operations could augment its long-term FFO and NTA growth: 2%, WACC: 6.69%) and for the discounted dividend

per share growth since cash flows from its build-to-sell portfolio model: 90% LT payout ratio, medium-term growth of 3% until

allow TAG to organically grow its build-to-hold portfolio in 2030E, long-term growth: 2%, COE of 9.4%).

Poland. Risks to our rating

A stabilising/falling interest rate environment provides a decent An unexpected strong increase in interest rates, which would hit