BFF Banking Group (AO) | Hold | Q1 results: something to work with, but a long way to go

Research evidence excerpt

BFF Banking Group (AO) | Hold | Q1 results: something to work with, but a long way to go

News comment

Release date: 12 May 2026

Tommaso Nieddu

Equity Research Analyst

Hold +39 02 85 50 72 18BFF Banking Group tnieddu@keplercheuvreux.com

Italy | Financial services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR403.0M

Target Price: EUR2.30 Bloomberg: BFF IM Reuters: BFF.MI

Current Price: EUR2.14 Free float 94.0%

Up/downside: 7.5% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 27.5

YTD abs performance -77.5% Market data: 11 May 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 11.54/1.43

Q1 results: something to work with, but a long way to go

Key points:

Q1 results were directionally positive, with the Adj. net profit printed at EUR43m (+24% YOY), running ahead of the EUR29-35m

quarterly cadence implied by the EUR115-140m FY 2026 guidance, but it should not be extrapolated, with the management

explicitly confirming some positive one-offs in the quarter.

CET1 jumped to 11.0% from 9.9% at FY 2025 and TCR to 13.41% from 12.31%, restoring (thinly) compliance with the 13.36% SREP

threshold and closing the c.100bps shortfall that triggered the supervisory framework. Capital is rebuilding faster than we

modelled, mainly thanks to c.EUR1bn of past-due collections (a c.EUR125m net decline given inflows refilled the bucket)

We believe that the structural questions remain open. The investment case rebuild requires (i) securitisation execution (no

update on perimeter, size or timing, but the deal now addresses both the contagion portfolio and the new past-due

reclassification, i.e. a bigger pool); (ii) post-2026 earnings stability through the calendar-provisioning; and (iii) a coherent strategic

plan reveal in H2 2026, where any portfolio action would materially reshape the model.

First proof point of organic capital rebuild

Table 1:Q1 2026 results