Sonae (AO) | Buy | Q1 preview: Momentum continues in 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Sonae (AO) | Buy | Q1 preview: Momentum continues in 2026

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 12 May 2026

Julian Megias

Equity Research Analyst

Buy +34 914 36 52 00Sonae jmegiasolmo@keplercheuvreux.com

Portugal | Holding companies Beta Profile: MCap: EUR3.9bn

Target Price: EUR1.70 Bloomberg: SON PL Reuters: YSO.LS

Current Price: EUR1.94 Free float 39%

Up/downside: -12.4% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 6.6

YTD abs performance 20.2% Market data: 08 May 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 2.05/1.10

Q1 preview: Momentum continues in 2026

Key points:

Sonae is due to report its Q1 2026 results on 20 May.

We expect sales growth momentum to continue in line with recent quarters (LFL of c.7% in Q1 2026E), mainly driven by food retail

(LFL of c.7.5%). According to INE, Portuguese supermarket retail sales were up 7% YOY in February, a trend that should extend

into March. Sonae should track at least in line with the broader market, underpinned by its leading position.

Beauty retail (LFL at c.5%, with total sales growth of c.11% on the back of Druni store openings) and Worten (LFL at c.7.5%)

should also contribute positively, both primarily volume-driven as prices eased on a YOY basis in Q1. Musti reported last week,

delivering c.4% LFL growth and c.12% total sales growth on the back of a very strong performance in Norway.

All in all, and including Sierra and Others, this leads us to expect c. EUR2.7bn revenues in Q1, up c.7% YOY.

On profitability, we forecast underlying EBITDA at EUR243m (c.12% YOY), underpinned by sales performance and a c.40bps

margin expansion to c.9% (8.5% in Q1 2025) driven by Worten's optimisation programme.

Finally, NFD should land at c. EUR1.8bn, or 1.5x LTM EBITDA (vs EUR1.9bn in Q1 2025), extending the deleveraging trajectory