An integration of decision trees into latent class modeling with covariates

Abstract

We propose a novel methodology for fitting decision trees to latent classes. The latent class analysis methodological literature has previously been focusing on logistic models of class membership given covariates, which has important drawbacks in the presence of complex interactions between covariates: logistic models are easily misspecified by omitting some interaction terms and complexity of interpretation increases rapidly with inclusion of higher-order interaction terms. Our proposed approach directly integrates decision tree modeling into the latent class analysis framework to model the covariate effects as an easily interpretable tree leading the eye through combinations of predictors to a final conditional classification. The novel methodology does not require any non-traditional assumptions for latent class models with covariates, is based on well-established routines of model estimation, and can be readily implemented in existing software. In the present paper, we focus on decision trees for binary covariates. We present the proposed approach, describe two tree pruning strategies, and provide a real-data illustration. Important extensions include generalizing the approach to multinomial and continuous covariates by developing more advanced within-predictor splitting procedures, and developing and evaluating alternative tree pruning strategies. The ultimate aim of this work is to initiate a novel research line in the latent class analysis methodological literature, and to facilitate the advancement of applied research via a novel data analytical tool.