Oh Deer, How Should I Handle This? Seasonal Priors for Selective Wildlife Annotation and Classification

Abstract

Fine-grained wildlife classification in aerial imagery is limited not only by model performance, but also by unreliable labels: animals occupy few pixels, key visual cues vary seasonally, and modality-specific evidence can be ambiguous. We study adult-male identification in red deer ($\textit{Cervus elaphus}$), where the antler cycle defines predictable windows of reliable evidence for both annotation and prediction. Using 7,295 RGB-only, thermal-only, and matched RGB+thermal crop sets from low-altitude UAV surveys, labeled by three annotators, we show that seasonal structure links (I) annotation quality, (II) downstream classification, and (III) selective prediction. Matched RGB+thermal review resolves more samples than either single modality, recovering majority-male labels otherwise missed by RGB or thermal alone, in human-based as well as model-based classification. Months with high annotator abstention also show lower classifier confidence, and soft seasonal priors mainly benefit the season-limited thermal view. Uncertainty-band abstention further raises covered accuracy to 98.9%, though at reduced coverage and with deferral that falls disproportionately on males. Overall, a biologically grounded seasonal calendar predicts where annotation and prediction are unreliable, and can guide both annotation protocol design and modality weighting.