Predictive Triggering for Outage-Resilient Threshold Decisions over Short-Packet Links

Abstract

Remote threshold decisions require more than accurate state estimates: the posterior must support reliable alarm/no-alarm decisions and, when possible, anticipate early critical decisions. We study this problem over short-packet wireless links with outage risk. We derive false-positive/false-negative feasibility conditions that define a decision-feasible region of the estimation and yield a predictive decision-update trigger. To protect predictive updates from outages, we add AoI-controlled resilience updates that both detect disruptions and maintain freshness. A two-state Markov surrogate of the thresholded process, matched to its one-step switching statistics, enables tractable long-term reliability-energy analysis. Then, we jointly optimized transmit power and AoI-controlled resilience update probabilities. Simulations show earlier, reliable decisions at competitive energy with baselines.