Bayesian Inference of Discretization Error Means in ODEs via Ensemble Kalman Filtering

Abstract

We propose a Bayesian framework to quantify discretization errors in numerical solutions of ODE models based on observational data. The discretization error is modeled as a random variable, and its mean-referred to as the discretization error mean-is inferred from the observations. By introducing a Markov prior on the temporal evolution of the discretization error mean, we formulate the problem as a state-space model with a linear Gaussian observation process, which enables efficient inference via the Ensemble Kalman Filter. We also propose a specific form of a Markov prior motivated by classical discretization error analysis, in which global errors accumulate from local errors. The proposed prior depends on the step size of a numerical solver, and we establish its convergence rate in probability as the step size tends to zero. Numerical experiments on the pendulum system and the FitzHugh-Nagumo model demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.