【Advanced Packaging Pitfall Guide: 台积电 Eats Meat, HBM Drinks Soup, Don't Treat A-Share Packaging and Testing as Leaders!】

English summary

### 【Advanced Packaging Pitfall Guide: 台积电 Eats Meat, HBM Drinks Soup, Don't Treat A-Share Packaging and Testing as Leaders!】 Time: 2026-07-29 18:58:12 Content: Conclusion first: The market treats "advanced packaging" as the core of AI computing power, and the logic is not wrong. But in detail, the global real profit pool is highly concentrated in 台积电 (CoWoS) and Korean HBM manufacturers (海力士/三星). A-share packaging and testing giants are currently more "drinking soup", and many have not even drunk the soup. Don't rush in just because you see "packaging and testing"! [Core Logic and Expectation Gap: Expansion ≠ Bottleneck Resolved] Many people think that "台积电 expanding CoWoS" means the positive news has been realized and the shortage is over. That's completely wrong! The core indicators are "lead time" and "booking rate": Currently, advanced packaging lead time is still 52-78 weeks (over a year)! New capacity is "locked in seconds" by major customers like 英伟达. As long as the lead time does not systematically shorten, the physical bottleneck of AI computing power still exists. ...