Tonight Determines the Market Direction Logic

English summary

### Tonight Determines the Market Direction Logic

Time: 2026-07-29 23:32:34

Content: Tonight's content:

1: The Middle East periphery escalated again. Tonight, crude oil surged again, and oil prices may return to above $100. Although Trump had said over the weekend to suspend strikes, the negotiation results were not to Trump's liking. In the past two days, there has been tough military escalation with Iran (Lang Ge). Tomorrow, we can see whether the oil sector will continue to rebound.

2: Tonight is key to determining tomorrow's market direction, because at the Fed's interest rate meeting at 2:00 AM on 7/30, there will be a decision on whether to raise rates or not. Let's analyze: 1) Woshi is a dove pretending to be a hawk. Woshi won't raise rates, but he will be more careful in the statement, continuing to trim it. There will be no hardening towards a September hike. The tone of the press conference will be softer than June, giving the market some breathing room and letting Treasury yields move lower. But he absolutely cannot show weakness. Once he says inflation is under control, the market will immediately price in rate cuts, and the AI bubble will take off again, then the slap in June would have been in vain. …