[July 30 Market Close Commentary]

English summary

Afternoon session saw a dip-and-recover, then another volatile pullback. Zhongji Innolight's turnover exceeded RMB 59.7 billion, refreshing the historical volume record set on June 5, 2026. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets' combined turnover was RMB 2.34 trillion, up RMB 46.2 billion from the previous day. On the surface, hot spots were messy, with more than 3,600 stocks falling. The index has been consolidating around 3,800 for five consecutive trading days; especially in the last three days, whenever it breaks below, it gets pulled back the same day, showing strong determination to 'defend' 3,800. We previously noted that a 'market bottom' forms under two conditions: first, the index rebounds again at 3,741, forming a 'W-bottom' pattern; second, falling below 3,741, constituting a 'no breaking, no establishing' situation. Next, the key is not to observe the protective capital's action at 3,800, but to observe the strength of active buying. Only when active buying rises can the market truly break out. We still need to prepare psychologically for a break of 3,741, but a break is not a signal to exit. Don't panic; such an accelerated bottoming is actually an opportunity to buy the dip. ...