Asia Potash International Recommendation 20260730

English summary

Since Friday's sharp drop, the stock has rebounded this week with valuation repair, but there is still significant upside, and we remain firmly bullish, mainly due to: Price side: 1. Domestically, H2 China's autumn plowing starts, autumn fertilizer enters concentrated stocking phase, compound fertilizer companies' operating rates steadily recover, and rigid demand for potash procurement continues to release. Overseas, the key incremental demand market in Southeast Asia enters the rainy season's concentrated top-dressing period, coupled with El Niño climate effects, increasing demand for crop stress resistance, yield protection, quality improvement, and output increase. Farmers have strong willingness to apply supplementary potash. We are bullish on potash price increases after Q3, with prosperity continuing to rise. 2. Currently, the price gap between overseas phosphate fertilizer (~$890/ton) and potash ($400/ton) continues to widen. Phosphate fertilizer prices remain high, energy prices support nitrogen fertilizer, potash has outstanding cost performance, and huge room for catch-up increases. Volume side: 1. The third 1 million tons/year Xiaodongbu potash project continues to optimize production systems and improve equipment efficiency; the company is fully sprinting toward the 2026 full-year target of 3 million tons of potash production. ...