Goldman Sachs organized a closed-door exchange with Samsung's memory experts, ultimately giving a 2027 overall memory ASP YoY midpoint of 27%-33%:

English summary

1. Samsung general-purpose DRAM: 2027 ASP +27% YoY (at the lower end of the range). 2. Samsung NAND flash: 2027 ASP +33% YoY (slightly above the upper end of the range). 3. High-end HBM: 2027 ASP substantially raised to +44% YoY, far above general memory, making it the segment with the strongest price-increase elasticity next year. Mainstream long-term agreement signing cycles have extended from one quarter to 3–5 years. Down payments have risen from 20% initially to typical 30%–40%. Floor prices, ceiling prices, take-or-pay, cancellation penalties, and capacity reservation compensation—a whole set of mechanisms are in place. The dominant parties are several giant cloud providers running AI servers. AI-related tightness is expected to last at least until 2030. Signing a 3–5 year contract essentially places the tail of the contract right after 2030, while China's capacity just catches up.