【ZX通信】Optical Module Industry Update, Firmly Bullish on Large Optical 260728

English summary

Response to rumors: The market has rumored that 1.6T prices may drop to USD 600 next year. #We believe the rumor is false. What we have learned is that top manufacturers' current quotes are far above this price (due to material shortages and tight delivery schedules, it is unlikely they would quote low prices), and even second-tier manufacturers would not quote such a low price. Therefore, competition in the high-end optical module industry has not intensified, nor has profitability declined. Looking ahead, we understand that some overseas CSP vendors have already provided clear 2027 optical module orders with monthly delivery schedules. In addition, 2027 will see incremental demand for 2.4T coherent lite and NPO (these products' prices and profitability will be significantly higher than 1.6T, and will ramp up significantly in 2028). Therefore, we believe the overall revenue scale and profitability of leading manufacturers will further improve. ...