[CICC Overseas] How many times did the internet bubble fall before it burst?

English summary

Looking closely at the experience of the internet bubble from 1995 to 2000, before the bubble finally burst in March 2000, there were at least four rounds of relatively large and prolonged corrections, with the Nasdaq averaging declines of 15-30% and lasting two to three quarters. In other words, a bull market is not formed overnight, and a bubble does not burst in one drop. In the current AI rally since the release of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, there have been two declines of more than 10%: February 2025 (DeepSeek release and reciprocal tariff shock) and February 2026 (Iran situation outbreak). More interestingly, the macro-micro causes triggering these declines are also similar, so the conditions for recovery may also be similar. Summarizing the common points of the underlying macro, industry, and market micro-structure may be more practically meaningful for observing the current market, which is the main work of this article. For reference.