ING: EUR/USD Dynamics Driven by ECB Hawkishness, Lagarde Departure, and French Fiscal Pressures

English summary

ING notes that while ECB hawkish signals support the euro in the short term, leadership uncertainty from Lagarde's early departure and French fiscal pressures pose medium-term risks. The euro's ability to hold above 1.1200 depends on GDP realization, French growth data, and USD positioning adjustments.