Analysis: Fed Likely to Hold Rates Next Week; Only Specific Geopolitical De-escalation Could Trigger Hike

English summary

Market pricing indicates a very low probability of a rate hike at the October 28 Fed meeting (only 4 basis points). Analysis suggests that unless an unexpected Iran peace deal causes oil prices to plunge and financial conditions to loosen excessively, the Fed will not raise rates. Current market sentiment is calm, making the cost of holding rates steady low.