IEA Monthly Report: Diesel Crack Spread Widens, Tightness May Persist Until H2 2027

English summary

The IEA states that global diesel market supply-demand imbalance will persist until the second half of 2027 due to geopolitical conflicts. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both believe this diesel tightness cycle will continue, suggesting a shift in trading focus from crude oil to middle distillates. Current diesel inventories are at low levels with prices hitting record highs, while limited Russia-US supply agreements are insufficient to change the overall landscape.