Brent Crude Maintains High Premium: Gulf Oil Exports Recover but Refined Product Supply Tightens

English summary

Despite significant recovery in Gulf oil export capacity, Brent crude futures remain near $100/barrel. Market focus has shifted to refined product supply, shipping costs, and inventory safety margins. Data from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan indicate crude exports are nearing normal levels, while diesel and gasoline exports have only recovered to 50-58% of average levels, sustaining the risk premium.