Gulf Oil Export Recovery Pressures Prices as Geopolitical Premium Fades Despite High Transport Costs

English summary

Brent crude fell to $96.54/barrel as reports from Kpler, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs indicated Gulf oil export flows have nearly returned to pre-conflict levels. Although reports of Iranian tanker attacks provided some support, the market's pricing logic shifted toward supply recovery data, causing geopolitical risk premiums to fade rapidly. However, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers have increased transport costs, meaning overall safety costs have not fully normalized.