[TF Electronic] How should Changxin Storage's IPO valuation be determined? Continue to favor the Changxin & Changcun industry chain (# most certain direction)

English summary

# Revenue and net profit for this year and next. Based on industry chain research, we assume DRAM ASP rises 65% in Q2, 15% in Q3, and prices stay flat from Q4 to next year. Revenue for 2026 and 2027 will reach 358.3 billion and 462.7 billion yuan respectively, and net profit attributable to parent will reach 195.3 billion and 265.6 billion yuan respectively. # How to value it? Especially in the context of the current global memory sector adjustment. -- Bear case (low probability): Referencing current overseas valuation levels, 5x PE next year, about 1.3 trillion yuan. -- Base case: 10-15x PE next year, about 2.6-4 trillion yuan. -- Moderately bullish case: Considering that the three current listed entities will be injected into the company and all net profits are included, 10-15x PE next year, about 3.8-5.7 trillion yuan. -- Bull case (low probability): Including the net profit of entities outside the listed company next year, 10-15x PE next year, about 4.2-6.3 trillion yuan. ...