AI Capital Big Relocation! Four Mines Explode Upstream, Four Directions Receive Money Mid-/Downstream

English summary

### AI Capital Big Relocation! Four Landmines Explode Upstream, Four Directions Receive Money Mid-/Downstream. Time: 2026-07-31 19:22:49 Content: In one sentence, the market style has shifted from 'buying narratives' to 'buying deliveries'; funds are withdrawing from the AI upstream and moving to four directions in the mid/downstream. The logic is clear and catalysts are dense, worth attention. Upstream: four bearish logics, each materializing: ① Capital expenditure logic reversal - giants spend heavily on AI, the market used to accept it all, now demands returns. If cloud revenue growth and order conversion are not shown, valuations get cut. ② Debt risk becomes explicit - expansion relies on bond issuance, but the credit market is cooling. Amazon's new bond subscription multiple halved, long-end tech bonds under pressure. Financing costs rise, expansion pace must slow. ③ Token budgeting suppresses prices - enterprises are becoming frugal in using AI, low-price models and open-source models are favored, premium for frontier high-price models shrinks. High-end computing demand structure is affected. ④ 'Selling shovels' logic loosens - chips and optical modules are tied to giants' spending cycles; once giants contract, shovel sellers cannot escape. ...