[HTDZ] Domestic and Overseas Manufacturers Initiate Dense Price Hikes, MLCC Industry Trend Accelerates

English summary

Price: The price increase window from July to August has arrived, and domestic and overseas original manufacturers have recently initiated dense price hikes. According to industry chain feedback, Taiyo Yuden has officially issued a price increase letter, and Samsung also plans to re-adjust channel prices for the second time this year; leading domestic companies also started price increases again in late July. Based on the current magnitude, this round of original manufacturer price increases may be around 30%, and widely targeted at consumer, industrial and other fields. It is expected that other original manufacturers will follow suit in the near future. In July, the market was concerned about the continued pullback in spot prices, mainly due to the excessive increase in short-term spot prices, a large gap with ex-factory prices, and a certain linkage between spot prices and stock prices. However, the MLCC inflation trend remains unchanged. Considering that in Q3, with the arrival of the stocking season and the mass production of AI servers such as Rubin with higher single-cabinet demand, while original manufacturers still have capacity squeeze from product switching, we believe the supply-demand gap will further widen. Recently, spot prices have stabilized, and original manufacturer prices continue to rise, which may re-drive spot prices to pick up. At present, MLCC supply is still tight, original manufacturers are fully loaded, and mid-capacity and ordinary high-capacity products are continuously switching to AI, with channel inventories at new lows. ...