Why is Capital Shifting to AI Midstream and Downstream, and What to Buy?

English summary

### Why is Capital Shifting to AI Midstream and Downstream, and What to Buy? Time: 2026-07-31 17:03:14 Content: There are currently four bearish logics for the AI upstream: 1. The capex logic has reversed; the market no longer buys into giants' "long-term strategies" but instead closely watches return on investment, demanding actual improvements in cloud revenue, orders, etc. 2. Debt risks are prominent; tech giants' expansion relies on bond issuance, but the credit market is cooling, with Amazon's new bond subscription multiple halved and long-duration tech bonds under pressure. 3. Token Budgeting: the cost-reduction trend suppresses high-end demand; companies are shifting to low-cost models, and the premium for frontier high-priced models is shrinking. 4. The "shovel seller" logic is loosening; infrastructure demand such as chips and optical modules is tied to giants' capex cycles and cannot stand alone. We believe AI still has long-term value, but the market style is shifting from "buying grand narratives" to "buying evidence of delivery," and narratives such as Token Budgeting favor open-source models and cloud providers, as well as downstream AI application targets with token distribution logic. …