[CITIC Social Services] World Cup Disruption Over, Focus on Macau 3Q26 Seasonal Recovery

English summary

Today, the Macau sector rebounded significantly. We judge mainly because the short-term negative disturbance has ended, and the market is trading the 3Q26 industry seasonal recovery ahead. Although 2Q26 was affected by World Cup diversion (after expansion, the number of matches +63% YoY) and abnormal win rates of some operators (Sands 2Q26 VIP win rate only 1.35%) and other short-term factors, GGR was only flat YoY. But we judge short-term impact over; the third week of July daily average GGR (13-19 July) reached 678 million, already double-digit MoM improvement compared with the first two weeks of July. We expect July industry GGR to decline 5% (vs June industry decline 12%). Currently major operators are continuously launching various non-gaming activities to attract core customers to visit Macau. Last weekend, Galaxy held the 'K Song King' concert (guests including Eason Chan, Joey Yung), and the FIVB Women's Volleyball Nations League finals; Sands held a property carnival, etc. We suggest actively observing the industry's recovery trajectory driven by various non-gaming activities in 3Q26. ...